Global Security, Privacy, & Risk Management

Suddenly, EVERYONE is a SNIPER July 20, 2024

With the attempted assassination of former President Trump on July 13, 2024, it seems as if everyone has become a firearm’s expert and self proclaimed ‘sniper’ or expert on precision shooting. Today, FoxNews ran a story lauding the Secret Service Counter Sniper who took out the wanna be assassin and called the shot “1 in a million”. This blog post is simply an opportunity to educate people on ballistics and shooting and to correct some misconceptions. First things first. I have read people say that the assassin wanna be (won’t name him) ‘intentionally shot Trump in the ear’. Uh….no! Let’s talk about rifles, ballistics and accuracy. First a couple of terms:

Precision- Refers to how close a measurement is to a true or accepted value. (Rifles are measured by their precision)

Accuracy- Refers to how consistently a measurement produces the same results under unchanged conditions. (Shooters are gauged by their accuracy on a given platform)

Rifles are typically ‘rated’ or measured in terms of precision of angular measurement known as Minutes of Angle or MOA. 1 MOA is equal to 1/60th of 1 degree of a circle or 1.0472 inches PER 100 yards. For simplicity’s sake we simply use 1 inch per 100 yards. So a rifle guaranteed to shoot 1 MOA will shoot most (nearly all…but it is a statistical distribution) within 1 inch.

So, if the rifle is put in a vice, with match ammo and under perfect conditions (no wind, no temperature fluctuation or other variables during the shooting), the 1 MOA rifle will shoot nearly all rounds within 1 inch at 100 yards(not all rounds as it is a statistical measurement). This does not account for shooter ability or environmental variables. Even a world class shooter shooting a 1 MOA rifle will only be able to shoot 1 inch per 100 yards consistently as that is the capability of the rifle. This is why benchrest and other competition shooters get high precision rifles that shoot much tighter than 1 MOA.

According to news accounts, the wannabe assassin was using a DPMS or similar model AR 15 type platform. These generally only shoot about 3-4 MOA even with Match ammo. So…..the wanna be assassin at 130 yard would likely (given a 3.5 MOA rifle) only be capable of, at best, a 4.55 inch group. now…it looks like he was shooing without optics, he was wearing glasses and, being 20 years old, likely did not have a ton of shooting experience. The adrenaline and other environmental factors would have likely played a major role. I could not see the shooter being capable, under those conditions, of better than a 5 inch group (likely much more). I short, that shot in Trump’s ear was likely as much luck, as skill.

Now…the FoxNews Article talking about the SS Sniper taking a “1 in a million shot” is really reaching. That sniper likely had a high precision rifle (shooting at least 1/2 MOA if not 1/4 MOA) and that sniper had been through some top tier sniper training and had high quality optics and many thousands of rounds of experience in urban shooting scenarios taking no reflex shots. It is highly likely that sniper could shoot to the capability of his rifle and was using match ammo and was very familiar with the platform. His shot was in an estimated 2 inch spot above the shooter’s left eye. While certainly a good shot, it would have been a ‘day at the job’ for a sniper of that skill level shooting that type of platform.

Remember, shooting is a craft that is a combination of art and science. The limitations come from both the shooter and the inherent accuracy of the platform. So the next time you hear someone tell you that “years ago my mom used to drive tacks with an old .30-.30 with open sights at 100 yards” (I actually read that and was derided for correcting that statement online) it is simply not true.