Global Security, Privacy, & Risk Management

Chinese Cyber Attacks and Unrestricted Warfare February 1, 2024

I first wrote about this phenomenon in 2012. It is becoming reality. The recent cyber-attacks attributed to the Chinese government on American infrastructure can be analyzed within the conceptual framework of “unrestricted warfare,” a doctrine developed by two PLA Colonels, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, in response to the perceived military superiority of the United States. This doctrine signifies a strategic shift from traditional, kinetic warfare to a multifaceted approach incorporating a broad spectrum of tactics including economic, political, and PR maneuvers to conduct ‘sub wars’ and ‘pseudo wars’.

At the core of unrestricted warfare is the recognition that the principles of war have evolved. As the authors state, “If we acknowledge that the new principles of war are no longer ‘using armed force to compel the enemy to submit to one’s will,’ but rather are ‘using all means including armed force and non-armed force, military and non-military, lethal and non-lethal means to compel the enemy to accept one’s interests’”[1]. This perspective broadens the scope of warfare to encompass non-traditional methods such as economic manipulation, cyber-attacks, and disinformation campaigns, transcending the conventional battlefield.

The Chinese cyber-attacks on the U.S. infrastructure, as reported in the aforementioned sources, align with this doctrine. These attacks represent a strategic choice to exploit vulnerabilities in critical systems to cause disruption and potential societal panic, without resorting to open military confrontation. This approach fits into the broader pattern of asymmetric threats.

Asymmetric threats, characterized by a disparity in the means and methods between different adversaries, are further defined by three criteria: the involvement of a tactic that one adversary could and would use against another, the unique ability or willingness of the adversary to use such means, and the potential for serious consequences if these means are not countered. In the cybersecurity realm, these threats take on a significant role. A minor actor with basic hacking tools can compel major entities to invest heavily in defense, illustrating the asymmetry in resources and efforts between attackers and defenders.

The Chinese strategy, as evidenced by the cyber-attacks, meets these criteria of asymmetric warfare. It involves tactics that the Chinese government is capable and willing to employ, which the U.S. would not mirror. The potential consequences of these attacks are severe, necessitating significant defensive measures.

Further aligning with the principles of unrestricted warfare, the authors note that unconventional methods can be formidable weapons in modern conflict. They observe, “As we see it, a single man-made stock-market crash, a single computer virus invasion, or a single rumor or scandal that results in a fluctuation in the enemy country’s exchange rates or exposes the leaders of an enemy country on the Internet, all can be included in the ranks of new-concept weapons”[2]. This recognition of non-traditional tactics as weapons underscores the expanded battlefield that now includes economic, political, and technological realms.

In conclusion, the Chinese cyber-attacks on U.S. infrastructure, as part of their broader strategic approach, are indicative of the principles of unrestricted warfare. They represent a calculated move to use asymmetric tactics to undermine U.S. strengths and exploit vulnerabilities, extending the battlefield into the cyber realm. This strategy exemplifies a modern approach to warfare, where the lines between military and non-military means are blurred, and the battleground extends into multiple domains.

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References:

1. Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, “Unrestricted Warfare.”
2. Ibid.